Domestic Fuel Prices Remain High Despite Sharp Global Decline
Revenue from Fuel Oil
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Annual government revenue from duties and taxes: around Tk 150 billion.
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BPC’s profit in FY 2024–25: Tk 43.16 billion.
Global fuel prices have dropped steeply, yet domestic prices have fallen only marginally. By keeping prices elevated, the state-owned Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) has significantly increased its profits.
In FY 2024–25, BPC earned Tk 43.16 billion, up from Tk 39.43 billion the year before.
The economy had already fallen into crisis due to what economists describe as “mismanagement and plunder” under the Awami League government, which was ousted in the July mass uprising. In March 2024, that government began adjusting monthly fuel prices—including diesel, petrol, octane, and kerosene—in line with the global market, withdrawing subsidies.
According to the World Bank, Brent crude was just over $85 per barrel in March 2024. By October, it had fallen to around $64, a slide of 25 percent.
During the same period, Bangladesh Bank data shows the dollar appreciated by 11 percent. Yet the government reduced diesel prices by only 4 percent.
Not only BPC but the government also earns a substantial income from fuel oil. Each year, about Tk 150 billion is collected through duties and taxes. BPC’s audited reports show government earnings from duties and taxes totaled Tk 146.48 billion in FY 2023–24.
BPC supplies around 6.8 million tonnes of fuel annually—62 percent consumed by the transport sector and 15 percent by agriculture.
Towards the end of the previous government’s tenure, repeated fuel price hikes sharply increased transport fares, agricultural costs, and overall inflation. Although inflation has eased under the interim government, it remains above 8 percent—higher than in countries like India and Sri Lanka that have significantly curbed inflation.
Economists argue that lowering fuel prices could have reduced transport fares and production costs, offering relief to the public. Fuel oil, considered a strategic commodity, is typically managed by governments not for profit but to ensure energy security and affordable access. However, the previous administration transformed it into a major revenue source—a practice that continues today.
They note that as the government struggled to collect sufficient income tax and revenue from wealthy groups, and faced financial pressure from large infrastructure projects, it increasingly relied on fuel oil as a revenue generator. This situation remains largely unchanged.
Despite earning profits from fuel oil, the government must still provide large subsidies to the power sector—around Tk 620 billion in FY 2024–25. This burden stems from the cost of maintaining numerous power plants built under the previous administration. The current government has not raised electricity tariffs.
Officials argue that fuel prices are kept high to prevent smuggling to neighboring countries and because major projects are financed using BPC’s profits.
Power and energy adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan told Prothom Alo that BPC’s profits are not taken away by individuals but reinvested in development. He said funding for a new refinery—initiated in 2012 when BPC was in losses—will come from BPC’s own earnings. Since 2015–16, the corporation has earned more than Tk 500 billion, despite a loss of Tk 27 billion in FY 2021–22. The refinery project is now with the Planning Commission.
Global Fuel Prices Down
BPC is the only state entity responsible for importing and selling fuel oil, while Padma, Meghna, and Jamuna distribute it through dealers.
Oil prices have fluctuated sharply in recent years. The pandemic collapsed global demand, bringing crude to an average of $42 per barrel in 2020. Prices rebounded the following year and surged after the Russia–Ukraine war, averaging over $100 per barrel in 2022, hitting a peak of $139.
Bangladesh responded by raising domestic fuel prices by up to 42.5 percent in August 2022. Under pressure, prices were reduced by only 4.38 percent the same month (down Tk 5 per litre). Diesel and kerosene were set at Tk 109, petrol at Tk 125, and octane at Tk 130.
Throughout 2024, global prices averaged around $70, and have now fallen to $62–64.
Yet domestic prices are still:
BPC officials say domestic prices cannot reflect global changes immediately because imported shipments take a month to arrive. The latest adjustments were based on prices between 21 October and 20 November—when global prices were higher than they are now.
However, a CPD analysis in November last year found diesel prices could have been reduced by Tk 10–15 per litre if aligned strictly with market rates. The Awami League government claimed to follow a monthly pricing formula, though the full formula was never made public.
CPD research director Khondaker Golam Moazzem told Prothom Alo that the pricing system bypasses real market rates and serves administrative convenience. After CPD identified nine weaknesses in the formula, the current government corrected only two. As a result, despite falling global prices, consumers still pay more—allowing BPC to profit. He called the smuggling rationale “ridiculous,” saying consumers cannot be deprived using border excuses.
Call for International Audit of BPC
BPC consistently profits from petrol and octane; its overall profit depends largely on diesel, which accounts for 75 percent of national fuel consumption. Only 0.6 million tonnes of diesel are produced locally; the rest must be imported.
There are longstanding allegations of theft, corruption, and inefficiency within BPC. Analysts believe that reducing these problems could lower domestic fuel prices.
CAB energy adviser M Shamsul Alam told Prothom Alo that an international audit of BPC has been demanded for a decade but never conducted.
He said, “Globally, the rule is that the government should provide services—not make profits. Yet despite collecting hundreds of billions in revenue from duties and taxes, the government does not invest adequately in development. BPC is earning excess profits in the name of investment.”
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