Election Schedule, the Shooting of Osman Hadi, and Growing Concerns Over the Polls

Election Schedule, the Shooting of Osman Hadi, and Growing Concerns Over the Polls

Some government policymakers had confidently claimed that law and order would improve once the election schedule was announced. Friday’s shooting of Sharif Osman Hadi, spokesperson of Inqilab Moncho and an independent candidate for Dhaka-8, has cast serious doubt on that assertion. Osman Hadi remains in critical condition. Regardless of his political affiliation, the fact that a candidate could be targeted in such a terrorist attack is deeply alarming and unacceptable.

Chief Election Commissioner AMM Nasir Uddin announced the election schedule on Thursday night. Less than 24 hours later, on Friday afternoon, Osman Hadi was shot. The 13th National Parliamentary Election and a referendum are set to be held simultaneously on 12 February next year. Instead of sparking public enthusiasm, the announcement has been overshadowed by fear and uncertainty following the attack. A tense and somber atmosphere now prevails across the country.

Political parties from across the spectrum have condemned the shooting, issuing statements and organizing protests in Dhaka, Chattogram, and other regions. Osman Hadi, who rose to national prominence during the July mass uprising, is now fighting for his life. The nation waits anxiously and prays for his recovery.

In his address, the chief election commissioner urged citizens to cast their votes without fear and stressed the need for a safe and festive electoral environment. Yet the question remains: how can an election be festive when candidates are being shot while campaigning?

With the polls approaching, the government has decided to deploy members of the armed forces alongside law enforcement agencies, though the military has already been involved in maintaining law and order since the current administration took office.

The attack on Osman Hadi is not an isolated incident. According to the human rights organization Human Rights Support Society (HRSS), at least 756 incidents of political violence occurred in the first ten months of this year alone. These incidents left 117 people dead and more than 6,000 injured. Much of the violence stemmed from power struggles, political vendettas, clashes during rallies, disputes over party committees, extortion, and the forcible seizure of property.

On 27 November, clashes erupted in Ishwardi, Pabna, during election campaigning between activists of the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. Jamaat alleged its members were attacked by BNP activists, while the BNP claimed local villagers collectively chased Jamaat supporters away. In the Pabna-4 (Ishwardi–Atghoria) constituency, BNP-nominated candidate Habibur Rahman, an adviser to the BNP chairperson and district BNP convener, is contesting against Abu Taleb Mondal, the district Jamaat amir. Tensions between their supporters in Char Gorgori village had been simmering for days prior to the clash.

Similarly troubling is the situation in Chattogram-8 (Boalkhali–Chandgaon), where a month has passed without identifying the shooter involved in a deadly attack during a BNP candidate’s outreach event. Police initially confirmed the involvement of a trained gunman. The incident, which occurred on 5 November in the Khandakarpara area under Bayezid Bostami Police Station, left Sarwar Hossain alias Babla, described as a militant associate accompanying the BNP candidate, dead at close range. BNP candidate Ershad Ullah, convener of Chattogram BNP, and five others were injured.

Following a law-and-order core committee meeting on 23 November, Home Minister Md Jahangir Alam Chowdhury claimed the situation was gradually improving, asserting that conditions had significantly stabilized over the past year and a half. Yet public insecurity remains widespread. Political violence continues unabated, and social crimes are also on the rise.

Under these circumstances, holding even a minimally credible election appears challenging—let alone conducting one that could be remembered as fair and exemplary. Multiple, often conflicting, power centers now operate within the administration. Although the administration and law enforcement formally fall under the Election Commission after the schedule announcement, effective control remains limited.

Deputy Commissioners, Superintendents of Police, and Upazila Nirbahi Officers frequently rely more on local political leaders than on the Election Commission itself. In practice, they often lean toward whichever party appears most powerful or likely to win. A recent remark by a Jamaat leader—“the administration will act according to our word”—sparked criticism, yet similar assumptions are quietly shared across political parties. This environment severely constrains the ability of officials and law enforcement agencies to act impartially or independently.

Amid this turmoil, President Md Sahabuddin broke a 16-month silence in an interview with Reuters, speaking via WhatsApp from Bangabhaban. He said he was willing to step down but felt constitutionally obligated to remain in office until the election is held. He also revealed that Professor Muhammad Yunus had not met him for nearly seven months and alleged that his public relations apparatus had been taken over.

In September, photographs of the President were removed from Bangladeshi embassies, consulates, and high commissions worldwide. “They were taken down overnight,” he told Reuters, adding that the move conveyed the false impression that he had been removed from office and left him deeply humiliated. He said he had formally requested Professor Yunus to restore the portraits, but no action was taken.

Since the formation of the interim government, various groups have demanded President Sahabuddin’s resignation, including protests and even a siege of Bangabhaban. Student leaders from the July 24 uprising have never fully accepted him, and several political parties supported his removal. The BNP, however, has argued that constitutional continuity requires him to remain until a new president is elected.

Once the upcoming parliamentary election concludes, the process of electing a new president can begin. Bangladesh’s presidential history is fraught: two presidents were killed in military coups, two were convicted in court, and others were forced from office in disgrace. Disputes also arose over whose authority would be used to issue constitutional orders under the July Charter. Ultimately, to avoid legal challenges, those orders were issued in the President’s name—just as the Supreme Court’s advisory opinion under Article 106 was sought in his name after the fall of the Awami League government.

Against this backdrop of violence, institutional uncertainty, and political mistrust, the road to a credible election remains deeply uncertain.