Earthquake: Dhaka’s Major Risk Becoming Increasingly Clear
The recent series of earthquakes has once again highlighted how vulnerable Dhaka is to a major seismic disaster. Experts warn that the capital’s proximity to active fault lines, unplanned urban development, and dense population place it at severe risk.
Between Friday and Saturday, four earthquakes struck Dhaka and nearby areas within just 31 hours. The strongest was a magnitude 5.7 quake on Friday morning, originating in Madhabdi, Narsingdi—only about 25 km from Dhaka—with a shallow hypocentre of just 10 km. Shallow quakes cause stronger shaking, and this one was among the most intense felt in years. Ten people, including children, were killed and more than 600 injured.
Within the next 24 hours, three more tremors followed: a 3.3 magnitude quake at 10:36 am on Saturday, a 4.3 quake in the evening—both in Narsingdi—and a 3.7 quake centered in Badda. Experts say these mild-to-moderate tremors may be early signals of a larger impending earthquake.
Data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) over the last five years amplifies these concerns. Between February 2021 and November 2024, 39 earthquakes occurred inside Bangladesh. Eleven—about 28 percent—originated within 86 km of Dhaka, ranging from magnitude 3.3 to 5.7. Another 28 occurred within 100–267 km of the capital. In total, quakes were recorded across 18 districts.
Md Mominul Islam, a former acting officer of BMD’s Earthquake Monitoring and Research Centre, said small tremors have occurred in Narsingdi before but were too weak to attract attention. Bangladesh lies near three active tectonic plates, and while small quakes are routine, large ones typically strike along plate boundaries. “There is a sub-fault in Narsingdi, and it now appears to extend towards Dhaka. This latest quake confirms that Dhaka is under significant risk,” he said.
Most Quakes Happen at Night
BMD data also shows that 23 of the 39 quakes occurred between 6 pm and 6 am. Since people are usually asleep or indoors at night, experts warn this significantly raises the risk of casualties.
Earthquake expert Prof. Humayun Akhtar said less than one percent of the accumulated energy at the plate boundary has been released so far. “These repeated tremors indicate that a major earthquake may be approaching,” he warned. Aftershocks following Friday’s quake suggest the fault line—locked under pressure for years—is slipping and releasing energy.
Why Dhaka Faces Extreme Danger
According to BUET civil engineering professor Raquib Ahsan, four key factors increase the city’s vulnerability:
1 Proximity to active fault lines now believed to be extending toward Dhaka.
2. Soil conditions, with many newly developed areas built on loose, low-lying land that amplifies seismic waves.
3. Non-compliance with building codes and lack of seismic-resistant design in many structures.
4. High population density, which would worsen casualties and damage during a major quake.
Preparedness: Still Lagging Behind
Despite a 2016 Bangladesh–China agreement to build a National Operation Centre for earthquake disaster management, no progress has been made in nearly a decade. Land previously allocated in Tejgaon was found inadequate.
Disaster Management officials say equipment procurement is ongoing, and the armed forces and fire service are deployed during major emergencies. The ministry also plans to train its 48,000 urban volunteers to raise public awareness.
However, experts remain concerned. Gowher Nayeem Wara of Disaster Forum said disaster preparedness is still weak and pointed out delays in communication from affected districts. He added that local government bodies have almost no role in disaster response, unlike in countries with successful disaster management systems.
He emphasised the urgent need for public awareness and regular drills. “Students were seen jumping from dormitory buildings out of fear. Why should this happen? Universities do not conduct earthquake drills. Awareness must start from school.”
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