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  PM seeks OIC support to resolve Rohingya crisis Prime Minister Tarique Rahman today sought support from member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to help resolve the Rohingya crisis. He made the appeal when ambassadors and high commissioners of OIC member countries stationed in Dhaka paid a courtesy call on him at his Cabinet Division office at the Bangladesh Secretariat this afternoon, according to Prime Minister’s Deputy Press Secretary Jahidul Islam Rony. During the meeting, the envoys congratulated Tarique Rahman on assuming office as Prime Minister. The OIC member states also reaffirmed their strong commitment to standing beside Bangladesh and strengthening bilateral cooperation in several sectors, including investment, trade, education, healthcare, textiles, and the pharmaceutical industry. Rony said the Prime Minister welcomed their remarks and, on behalf of the government and the people of Bangladesh, thanked the OIC countries for their continued support. T...
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Why Bangladesh Should Be Concerned About Elections in Assam and West Bengal

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Why Bangladesh Should Be Concerned About Elections in Assam and West Bengal

Assam and West Bengal, two Indian states bordering Bangladesh, hold strategic and political significance for Dhaka. Developments in these regions—particularly around elections, demographics, and citizenship—can have direct and indirect implications across the border.

While the “infiltrator” narrative targeting alleged illegal migration from Bangladesh has long been a feature of Indian politics, its impact as a campaign tool has diminished over time. In response, India’s ruling establishment, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), appears to be adopting more structural and administrative strategies that still draw on similar themes but carry broader consequences.

Changing Political Landscape in Assam

Muslims constitute a significant share of the population in both Assam (around 34%) and West Bengal (approximately 27–28%). Despite their demographic presence, they remain politically and economically disadvantaged. Historically, however, they have played a decisive role in several constituencies, often being viewed as a “vote bank.”

In Assam’s 126-member legislative assembly, Muslims were once the majority in about 35 constituencies. Over time, electoral boundaries have been redrawn in ways that dilute their influence. Muslim-majority areas have been merged with Hindu-majority regions, while some constituencies have been restructured or reserved for Scheduled Castes and Tribes.

These changes have reduced the number of Muslim-majority constituencies to around 20. The broader effect has been to weaken not only minority representation but also opposition parties such as the Congress and left-leaning groups, which traditionally relied on minority votes.

Such constituency reconfigurations—though legal—are widely seen as engineered to shape electoral outcomes. If replicated in other states, including West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, they could significantly alter the composition of India’s legislative bodies.

Voter List Controversy in West Bengal

In West Bengal, a different approach has emerged. A “Special Intensive Review” (SIR) of voter lists has led to the exclusion of approximately 9.1 million names. While voter list updates are routine, the scale and criteria of this exercise have raised concerns.

Under SIR, individuals with “logical discrepancies” in their records—often minor spelling variations or documentation inconsistencies—have been removed. Reports suggest that at least 4 million exclusions were due to such minor issues, with a disproportionate impact on Muslim voters and the Matua community.

This has political implications. The ruling All India Trinamool Congress has historically relied on minority support, while the BJP has been expanding its base. In the 2021 election, the BJP won 77 seats with a 38% vote share, narrowing the gap with Trinamool’s 48%.

Reducing even a small portion of Trinamool’s support base could shift electoral outcomes. The SIR process, critics argue, may be influencing that balance.

Broader Strategic Concerns

For the BJP, Assam and West Bengal are not just electoral battlegrounds but also border states adjacent to Bangladesh. Some ideological currents within India frame Muslim political influence in these regions as a security concern.

Direct expulsion of populations would provoke international backlash. However, gradual political marginalisation—through reduced representation and loss of civic rights—could lead to economic hardship and social exclusion. Over time, this may push affected communities toward migration.

Given the shared cultural, linguistic, and historical ties across the border, any such movement would likely impact Bangladesh.

Echoes of NRC and Future Risks

The experience of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam is instructive. In 2019, around 1.9 million people—many of them Bengali-speaking—were excluded. A similar dynamic appears to be unfolding in West Bengal through the SIR process.

Combined, these developments risk creating millions of people classified, at least administratively, as “outsiders” or “infiltrators” along Bangladesh’s borders.

Why It Matters for Bangladesh

Regardless of electoral outcomes—whether the BJP consolidates power or opposition parties retain control—the structural changes already underway carry long-term implications.

For Bangladesh, the concern is not just political but humanitarian and strategic. Any rise in statelessness, displacement, or cross-border pressure could affect border stability, migration patterns, and bilateral relations with India.

In that sense, elections in Assam and West Bengal are no longer purely domestic political events—they are developments with clear regional consequences.

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